For a party that has unionist in its name, the two final candidates in the contest didn't seem to be particularly enthusiastic about the whole unionism thing. To me, it seems the campaigns of both Sunak and Truss spent a disproportionate amount of time trying to portray themselves as the more Thatcherite candidate. I don’t suggest for a minute that the cost of living crisis is unimportant; with inflation at a 40 year high, the two candidates needed to set out their stalls as to how they will combat it. We are also living in turbulent times with the war in Ukraine continuing. That being said, with Nicola Sturgeon announcing on 28 June 2022 the SNP’s intention to plow ahead with their plan to hold a referendum on Scotland’s place in the UK on 19 October 2023, with the decision on the constitutionality of a poll currently being adjudicated by the Supreme Court, the Conservatives need to discover how to put the United Kingdom on a steady keel.
I doubt that the general public will look highly on a Prime Minister and political party that presides over the break up of a hugely successful 300 year old political union. It is worrying how so many have seemingly concluded that the break up of the UK is inevitable, a law of nature. It isn’t but, that being said, the union and its institutions are going to need reimagining to survive. A new truly federalist system is required, completing the half-baked concept of devolution.The reform required needs to start with the Conservative Party itself.
For me, one of the elements I found most interesting during this campaign was from a candidate who has now been eliminated from the race. Penny Mordaunt’s campaign video recognised that the United Kingdom is constituted of four nations. We forget this at our electoral peril. The way that the current leadership process for the Conservative Party works there is no incentive for any of the candidates to consider the perspectives from the other constituent nations. I think this has been made clear in the absence of meaningful discussion so far by Sunak or Truss on the subject.
In this sense the shortcomings of devolution provide an answer as to how the Conservative Party can become more relevant to all the constituent nations, and in the process help save the UK. Devolution was half-baked and clearly designed by the Labour Party in a self-interested attempt to, as it viewed it after its victory in 1997, retain power in Scotland and Cymru/Wales even if it lost support in England.
It was a three- quarters finished attempt at UK style federalism which I would argue has actually fuelled nationalism in Scotland. Whoever takes over as the next Conservative leader and ultimately Prime Minister on 5 September 2022, needs to address the growing divide within the UK and seek to change how future Conservative leadership contests are run.
One of the arguments often made by the SNP in favour of independence is that Scotland doesn’t vote Conservative: 692,939 would beg to differ, but this an inconvenient truth they omit to mention. The SNP is implying the Conservative Party has no interest in considering Scotland’s opinion. The overly-centralised nature of the Conservative Party adds validity to this assertion but there is a solution: a completely federalised Conservative Party.
A federal unionist Conservative Party would exist in much the same way as the relationship between the CDU and CSU in Germany. Four distinct parties would exist, including in England. In essence the four parties would govern in a form of permanent coalition, a confidence and supply arrangement.
The overall leader of this structure could be elected by qualified majority voting (QMV). QMV is the system used by the Council of Europe when adopting decisions. A QMV system of voting could require any leader to gain 50% of constituencies and 50% of the vote in each of the respective nations.
This voting structure would require any future leader to appeal to party members across the UK. I like to think that in any Conservative leadership election, as Lord Mountbatton said on arrival in India in 1947 as the last Viceroy, a prospective leader should have to appeal to the “greatest goodwill from the greatest possible number”. QMV would give party members across the UK, from Glasgow to Grimsby, Aberystwyth to Ashford, an equal input into the leader of our great party. It would make it much harder for the party to be tarnished with the accusation it doesn't represent the whole of the UK. Not only would it help to grow and develop the Conservative Party membership and electoral appeal throughout the United Kingdom but it would hopefully also strengthen the links between all parts of the UK
We are in a time of great change faced with a multitude of challenges, whether that is the cost of living crisis or the war in Ukraine. The existence of the UK itself is being increasingly challenged as well. To survive, it is going to need to adapt. The Conservative Party becoming a truly federal unionist party, including in the way it elects its leader, could help deal constructively with this challenge. Like it has on countless occasions before, the Conservative Party needs to evolve to put the UK back on a stable trajectory.
