mercredi 8 février 2012

Eurasian Treaty on economic and civil-military cooperation

Recently Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister of Russia, has proposed  that a Eurasian Union, a collection of former Soviet satellite states and Russia, should be formed. This Eurasian Union would be modeled on the European Union with a Eurasian Commission aiming towards the creation of a zone of free trade in Northern Asia and the Eastern flanks of the European continent. A number of states that border the Russian Federation have already expressed an interest in joining the proposed organisation which Russia's Foreign Minister hopes could be set up by 2015.

With a resurgent Russia showing the potential of becoming a global economic and military powerhouse, this concept makes sense. The project is in line with Russian attempts to expand its influence to its near-abroad and regain some pride after the humiliation of the collapse of the Soviet Union. But perhaps a new type of integration would be more useful, and better armed to taper the power, militarily and economically, of Russia at the same time: a collective security organisation.                                                                   

With America receding from the military scene after just over a decade of self-defeating wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the other developed nations of the world need to make sure America does not make the same mistake in the future. Any country with the sort of military primacy the United States has had post-Cold War will almost inevitably be attracted to grand theories like selective engagement - which works well with primacy-acting as a  sort of global police officer and moraliser. A Eurasian Treaty on economic and civil-military cooperation could potentially bring a sense of calm during the transition period between periods of hegemony, those of the United States and China. It would also make the NATO more cautious and, perhaps, less likely to trot off on a misadventure: the number of small conflicts seems to have increased in the post-Soviet due to the collapse of the relatively stable two superpower model.   

A Eurasian Treaty on economic and civil-military cooperation would be able to use a neo-functionalist model to integrate military and economic means amongst the growing powers in Asia, and established powers in Europe into a strictly intergovernmental organisation. As the BRIC economies start to catch up with America economically, the hegemonic stability theory (HTC) will be strained even further. By integrating militarily and economically, Asia and Europe can ensure that there is a peaceful transition to a more multi-polar economic and military world. A civil-military alliance between Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belerus, Finland, Bulgaria, Mongolia, Azerbaijan and Turkey would lay firm foundations for the creation of a zone of  peace. If successful, the project of coordination could eventually expand and try to build diplomatic bridges between avowed enemies such as those that exist between India and Pakistan and North and South Korea: by creating a stable civil-military treaty pooling resources in a collective security regime. It would allow these enemies to work together within a wider framework that could inforce agreements and reduce insecurity. The structure of any cooperation could be akin to ESFP, including battlegroups and peacekeeping forces enforcing collective security and assistance to troubled countries in the Asian and European spheres.   

A key aim of economic and civil-military cooperation could be a real attempt at collective disarmament.making the region more stable. By bringing avowed enemies into a treaty, it would be easier to negociate bilateral military reductions- especially at flashpoints along the Pakistan-India border, Kashmir and along the 38 parrallel between North and South Korea. In the same way that the ECSC made war in Europe impossible by merging resources under a common command, perhaps a pooling military resources and increasing awareness of other countries might permit a structured demilitarization of the borders between North and South Korea and Pakistan and India - to the benefit of the entire world.      

In conclusion, it may be premature to completely discredit Putin's idea of greater regional cooperation. In many respects, as has been witnessed in Europe, cooperation could be a source of peace and stability and help resolve conflicts of interest in Asia and Europe. Whilst civil-military cooperation has not been discussed as part of Eurasian Union tallks by Russia, it perhaps should be considered. The potential benefits of doing so could be considerable.

Sources
 BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15172519   
 Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Union